China’s « rental housing than the » too high
ZHOU Ke-cheng
2010 Nian 1 Monday, 18,
« rental housing than » refers to a monthly rent of a house with the ratio between the total housing sales. If a house is 1,000 yuan per month, priced at 20 million, and that this house rental is a 1:200 ratio.
recent Beijing an agency Midland Realty released a survey in November 2009 rental property market in Beijing, more than a breakthrough 1:500, 1:546 achieved some regional and even as high as 1:700. The Shanghai and Shenzhen’s housing rental ratio is 1:500 and 1:450 respectively.
widely believed that such a housing rental ratio is too high, and I agree. But people come to this conclusion, and it is so-called « internationally accepted standards » more derived, but is said to « internationally accepted standards » than in the rental price between 1:100 to 1:230 and so on. I think, just say « internationally accepted standards » does not have too much convincing, because the « internationally accepted standards » did not tell us how to calculate out, but also did not tell our housing rental high and low ratio would be people’s lives impact of wealth, but also did not tell us that the internationally accepted standard, in the end market in China to make investment decisions for people with much reference value.
In fact, it is necessary to know whether the housing rental ratio is too high, we have an absolutely ingenious, accurate and reliable calculation method -- that is brought and the present interest rate compared to. Housing and any durable goods, like lower interest rates, its long-term value is higher; interest rates higher, the lower its long-term value. Therefore, the interest rate is lower, the « rental price than the » high and buyers to bring wealth to the smaller loss. And vice versa.
Let us look at the situation today. In accordance with the provisions of the one-year short-term bank lending rate 5.31% calculation,cheap jimmy choo, one million yuan a year to recover 53.1 thousand yuan in interest. Rental housing in the 1:500 ratio, the set price of one million yuan on housing, a month rent for 2,000 yuan, a year to recover only 24,000 yuan. That is, the annual interest rate of 5.31% of the cases, if the light from the perspective of the interest, you have to buy a house Kuidiao 29,000 yuan a year.
you would think this is considered as too high interest rates result? I can tell you, in fact according to the central bank’s interest rate is already very conservative. Such as Wenzhou, private lending interest rates at around 10%; in my hometown in Yunnan Province, farmers to rural credit cooperatives, loan interest rate is 20%; now each of us has at least one credit card, Rixi five ten thousandths, quite at 18% per annum. Please click count, 10% per annum, you will be able to recover the 100 thousand yuan a year, buying a house rental, you can only recover 24 thousand yuan a year, the housing rental ratio is not too high?
so to speak, does not consider other case, at 6% per annum over the case, so long as housing rental ratio of more than 1:200, it is not worth to buy a house. You do have 100 million in interest income on a year where the light boasts 6 million to buy a house if the monthly rent, if nature is not worth less than 5000 -- Beijing is a set price of one million houses, generally only received about 2,000 yuan monthly.
However, China’s currency rate is not a sudden surge in the past two years, for many years, private lending rate remained at 6% or more of the. Beijing’s housing rental ratio, as early as several years ago a breakthrough 1:200, 1:300 break, breaking through 1:400, so that up to today’s 1:540. Such a high ratio in the rental case, why I still keep some money or buy a house? And people seem less enthusiastic about such a purchase can not see any signs of subsiding?
I think that at least the following two reasons:
First, inflation expectations under the real estate investment is a relatively reliable and safe haven of wealth. If you just from the sale or rental ratio, right now there really is not worth the buy a house, but if you take into account inflation expectations, taking into account the future price inflation will continue to rise, the future rents will rise up, now buy a house is a very cost-effective deal. Of course, the future inflation rate, will be whether it large enough to offset the high rental housing than the losses do not know. But those in the past few years, people who buy a house, even in the housing rental ratios 1:200,chanel shoes uk,1:300 buy a house, that is cost-effective, because the prices had already doubled.
Second, the housing fund boost enthusiasm for the people buying houses. Housing Provident Fund is a policy of encouraging people to rush a house. Similarly, a sum of money, if we can have a variety of purposes, then it will not necessarily push up house prices, not necessarily encourage people to purchase home ownership. But if you specify the money must be used to buy a house, then it will certainly push up prices, there must be the effect of encouraging people to buy a house. The housing fund is to play such an effect. Just think, the Government monthly salary deducted from your large sum of money, rather than buy a house apart from the money, you can not be used for other purposes, then you do not hurry to take out buy a house, then you would it not be a fool it?
, of course, uninformed people may say: « Provident Fund where interest rates can also have citizenship. » But I can tell you that fund’s annual interest rate is very very very low! Housing provident fund management center in Beijing’s approach to the implementation of an example, when deposited in the provident fund interest rates can only be considered according to demand, which is 0.36% per annum; while the previous year sweep of the provident fund interest rates, but also on a regular basis for three months only in accordance with the whole get the entire deposit interest rates on deposits in interest-bearing, which is 1.71% per annum. Whether the former or the latter, and civil society at least 6%, generally 10% of the lending interest rates are very low in comparison! Since the times where a sum of money, while interest income was so low, then quickly took it out of people buy a house that is not also strange.
having said that,cheap christian louboutin shoes, from the perspective of interest rates, China is indeed a very high ratio of rental housing, while the immediate inflation outlook also remains strong, however, all of which factor is more powerful, I do not know a. So if you want to buy a house, then he invited himself to judge their own decisions, do not put too much importance in this article as a reference. I am no expert, but do not want to invest in any person responsible for the acts. Of course, the Chinese than the high rental housing, there may be something else, but I have not thought of, hopefully knowledgeable expert to the exhibitions.
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